The Death of the Laurier Doctrine

...or why Canadian history is about to get a lot less boring.

2024.03.12

Canadians are unprepared for the rapidly deteriorating world we find ourselves in. I believe this is due to what I call the death of the Laurier doctrine. The Laurier doctrine, simply put, is the belief that Canada enjoys a sanctuary position in world politics because the United States’ Monroe Doctrine guarantees our country’s security. We have lived in this de facto security bubble since the turn of the twentieth century. However, I would argue we do not live in it anymore, or we won’t for long.

There are two reasons to think this way. First, it is very likely that America is no longer willing to protect us. Second, it is becoming more and more likely America is no longer able to protect us. I will examine the two reasons in order.

There are good reasons to suspect America is losing its patience with Canada. The most obvious sign of this is former President Trump’s statement that he would not protect NATO allies who are delinquent on their military spending commitment of 2% GDP. Canada is certainly one of the worst such delinquents. One may object and say, “Yes. That is true. But Canada is not like the European NATO allies. We share a continent with the US and threats to our sovereignty are legitimate threats to America, not dangers far away in places like Ukraine.” To this, I would say, that is correct, but that does not so much guarantee America would defend us as incentivize America to violate our sovereignty in order to guarantee their own security. For example, if China or Russia were to threaten our sovereignty in the Arctic, why would America bother with Canada when the US military could launch operations into the arctic by itself? Why should America even bother pretending we’re a sovereign state?

The second reason to suspect we can no longer count on America’s Monroe Doctrine to provide a collateral security guarantee to Canada is the possibility that America can no longer secure itself, let alone the entire continent or the Western Hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine and its historical interpretation have been oriented towards security against invasion. This says nothing about a refugee crisis at the southern border or election interference or the destabilizing effects of state-sponsored disinformation campaigns. Those threats are weakening the US government to the point where it is becoming (or has become) completely dysfunctional. Given that this is the case, Canadians have less and less reason to think that Team America can swoop in to save us from an act of aggression by regimes like China, India, Iran, or Russia.

If either of my two reasons are correct, the most fundamental axiom of Canadian security – the Laurier Doctrine – no longer applies. Canada is now subject to the leaderless anarchy of the international system that we have not had to content with since before Confederation. And we are completely unprepared.